Dalla Redazione NPL e crediti deteriorati

NPL, National Observatory Npl Market Credit Village: 51 operations in the Q1 2018 (+100 % from 2017) and on April the GBV increased. Forecast for 2018: 300 operations for a total value of 65 billion

If 2017 had been the NPL’s year, 2018 bodes a new record: from January to March, signed agreements have doubled, if compared to Q1 2017: 51 vs 26.
A 100% increase, that, by the way, is not reflected in the value of sold GBV, that has reached 4 billion, in line with Q1 2017 (3,5 billion).
This is what have been reported by the National Observatory Npl Market Credit Village, that has published figures of Q1 2018 and made a forecast for the coming months.
The majority of the transactions completed in Q1 2018, has been on small tickets portfolios, with investors and sellers more and more interested in “single name” transactions, regarding operations on single positions, guaranteed by mortgage.
This kind of deal satisfies both parts: buyers can conduct targeted due diligences, reducing the investment risk and sellers can increase the purchase price.
By the way, April has marked a turning point with 2 “jumbo deals” for a total value of 29 billion.
The first operation, completed on April 11, is related to the transfer of an 18 billion non performing assets portfolio of the so called Veneto Banks (Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca), as a measure to be implemented following their orderly liquidation procedure.
This portfolio, that is composed of NPLs, UTP and Past Due, will be managed by SGA, a vehicle owned by the Italian Ministry of the Economy.
The second one, completed on late April, is related to the agreement signed between Intesa Sanpaolo and Intrum, that gave the start for a 10,8 billion dismissal operation from Intesa Sanpaolo.

The National Observatory Npl Market Credit Village, according to data and information that it has been collecting since 2016, and thanks to a detailed analysis, bank by bank, of all the different operations completed and announced over the last 2 years, has drawn up an accurate forecast of the number and the value of the different transactions to be closed in 2018.
“2017 has been a great year for the NPL’s dismissals, with more than 250 operations completed with a GBV value of 72 billion (65 dismissal agreements have been signed only in December) so it was predictable that in Q1 2018 wouldn’t be reached important transaction’s volumes, explains Roberto Sergio, CEO of Credit Village and Director of the Observatory.
By the way, already in the first month of the Q2 2018, there has been an increase in transaction’s volumes.
According to our forecast, by the end of 2018, we expect that there will be dismissals for a total amount of 65 billion GBV,
after deduction of Monte dei Paschi’s securitization, included in the last year’s amount and that will be formally completed in 2018.
As far as the number of transactions is concerned, total NPLs transactions may exceed 300 this year.
We expect that there will be an increase in the number of deals involving more than 1 billion GBV and that they will be at least 15 vs 9, occurred in 2017.
Regarding the Re-Trade market, even if in the Q1 2018, 16 operations out of 51 concerned re-dismissals and even if, at present time, in the market there are some pending operations with a high volume as, for example, the Credit Agricole’s one (planning to sell a 6 billion NPL’s portfolio), we will have to wait at least one more year before the Re-Trade market could become an established alternative to the First Market.
Investors carry out their operations, more and more, by the means of SPV companies: in the Q1 2017 40 transactions have been completed using the Italian law 130/99”

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